CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Tue 10 Jan 06:00 - Wed 11 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 09 Jan 21:49 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across northern Scotland and parts of southwestern Norway

Thunderstorms are forecast across the northern British Isles, southwestern Norway, southern and southeastern Spain and parts of the western Mediterranean and the south-central Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Tuesday at 06 UTC... the flow over much of central and southern Europe is weak with the exception of western Iberia, where a northerly jet is located on the western flank of a mid/upper low pressure area. The combination of inland/upslope flow induced by the system along Spain's southeastern and southern coasts... and a marginally unstable air-mass being located over the western Mediterranean.... is expected to result in the formation of convective storms on Tuesday morning or earlier.

DISCUSSION

...northern Scotland and parts of southwestern Norway...
An intense trough over the northern Atlantic is expected to induce rapid cyclogenesis resulting in a 940 hPa low pressure system over the southern Norwegian Sea by Wednesday morning. Both forced convection along its cold front as well as convection within the trailing polar air-mass can be expected. Severe gusts will likely start affecting Scotland late Tuesday afternoon. The strongest gusts can be expected within convectively induced downdrafts and may reach speeds of around 35 m/s. The peak gusts will affect the indicated region within Norway early Wednesday morning and will likely reach speeds of around 40 m/s.

#